Predicted Habitat Suitability of Scots Pine in Romania

Abstract

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests cover around 28 million hectares in Europe, representing approximately 20% of the commercial forest area. Sudden environmental changes can cause the maladaptation of a species, a reduced fitness, and population decline. This study aimed to identify the main climatic drivers of Scots pine distribution in Europe and to model its current and future habitat suitability in Romania under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, with a focus on projected range shifts. The climatic variables that had the highest relative importance were Annual Mean Temperature (BIO1) and Temperature Seasonality (BIO4). At present, more than 70% of Romania (187,000 km2) represents areas with excellent climate suitability (above 80%) for Scots pine. By the end of the century, this area is predicted to diminish to 55,000 km2 – 14,000 km2 (22 – 6%), under SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5, respectively. To provide forest managers and policymakers with reliable adaptation frameworks, it is essential to model climate-driven shifts in species distribution. Future modelling efforts should enhance predictive accuracy for Scots pine by integrating additional key environmental variables.