Econometric forecasting of imports and exports indexes in Romania

Abstract

The objective of this research is the assessment of accuracy for imports and exports predictions based on econometric models. For the Romanian economy, the indexes of exports and imports are forecasted on the horizon 2011-2013. For the first period (2011-2012), all the forecasts are overestimated, this being an important clue that these predictions based on econometric models did not take into account the shocks in the economy. The imports’ indexes anticipations are more accurate than those made for the exports’ indexes. Moreover, the ex-ante evaluation of the predictions was made for 2013, under the assumption that this year the indicators would have the value from 2012. An underestimation of the exports is expected for 2013.