Fuzzy approach to innovative programs development in conditions of partial and full uncertainty

Abstract

In the article the authors develop their research aimed at the use of fuzzy logic and fuzzy set theory to model the solution of economic problems. In particular, there are considered approaches to formation of innovative programs and the choice of a set of innovative projects, and their components, under varying degrees of uncertainty. Among the major selection criteria were identified such as financial capacity, payback period, profitability, social significance, regulatory compliance, degree of novelty, size of the market, opportunity of international cooperation, financing flexibility, flexibility of project and others. Algorithms using fuzzy linguistic expert assessment of the main criteria that characterize the innovative programs are proposed. At the same time can be taken into account the level of competence of experts as well as the requirements of the regional authorities and the degree of uncertainty. The proposed solutions are based on the multicriteria convolutions of criteria estimates, max-min approach and computational analysis of the relations of domination. Are given examples of calculations for the pessimistic and optimistic approaches to the solution. Also described approach of rigorous dominance, interval dominance and not dominance in the case of considerable uncertainty, allows establish the relative degree of efficiency and a measure of preference for several innovative projects. The described theoretical approach can be successfully extended to other situations need formalized solving of multicriterial choice problems on the set of alternatives in conditions of different degrees of uncertainty in the economy.