Final Result Prediction in Female 400m Track Event Based on Results Achieved at Certain Race segments

Abstract

The main aim of this research study was to determine the influence of 6 predictor variables, related to split times at every 100m of 400m race as well as of first and last 200m of 400m race, on criterion variable - final result in 400m events. The entity sample included 32 results from 26 female athletes who were participants in the final 400m races at four World Championships in Athletics: Stuttgart (1993), Athens (1997), Seville (1999), and Berlin (2009). Data needed for this research study were obtained from official results and published biomechanical analyses. Multiple regression analysis revealed a very high influence of predictor variables on criterion variables, that is – on the final 400m results, with 99% of the shared variance at the p level of 0.01. Observation of partial coefficients and split times at every 100m showed the best correlation to the final result was split running time from 300th to 400thm, as well as running time of both 200m segments of 400m race, especially the second 200m. It can be concluded that all predictor variables are significant for successful placement in 400m race, which proves that even though the 400m event is a sprint event, it still requires runners' highly developed abilities such as speed, speed endurance, strength, technique and tactics, mental stability and motivation to fight oneself and other competitors in final segments of the race which places 400m event among the most demanding athletic events.