A Prediction Regarding the Confessional Structure in Romania in 2012

Abstract

The aim of this research is to show how an exact science, like statistics, confirms the intuitive appreciations of people that are interested in the future evolution of different confessions in Romania. Indeed, the last Census organized in Romania put in evidence a decrease of the Orthodox Christians’ weight that is anticipated to be maintained in the next 10 years. On the other hand, the decline of Orthodox and Roman Christians is compensated by the other religious minorities and by the increasing number of atheists. Our prediction based on the Markow chain, a quantitative method, emphasizes that the weight of Orthodox Christians will decrease in 2022 compared to the last Census, while the proportion of Roman Catholics will increase slightly, even if in the last 20 years a decline of this category was observed. The overall proportion of the other's confessions will remain constant, but changes may be registered inside each religious minority. It is more likely to have an increase in the number of atheists because of the negative influence of the occidental culture and because of the lack of moral models and religious behavior.