A novel epidemic model to analyze and control the chaotic behavior of COVID-19 outbreak

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spread all over the world. There are more than 43.14 million COVID-19 confirmed cases and over 1.15 million deaths reported worldwide till October 26, 2020. As the proper treatment/vaccine is not available, most of the countries are relying on various preventive measures to check the spread of the epidemic. The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of corona preventive measures on the spread of COVID-19 by employing a novel epidemic model. Moreover, time series and bifurcation analysis techniques have been used to estimate this impact. To prove the validity of our model, we apply our model to highly affected countries such as China, Italy, the USA, UK, and India. Our findings might be a very useful tool for decision holders and policymakers to make the right decisions in a timely way to control the outbreak of COVID-19, knowing the uncertainties about the coronavirus disease. We show a good agreement between the reported data and the estimations given by our model.