Two Decades of Expansion: Population Dynamics and Spatial Distribution of the Golden Jackal in Romania between 2004-2025

Abstract

The golden jackal (Canis aureus) has undergone rapid and widespread expansion across Europe over the past two decades, with Romania emerging as a key region for both population growth and territorial colonization. This study examines the spatial distribution and population dynamics of the species in Romania between 2004 and 2025, based on official data collected from more than 2,100 hunting grounds. Using descriptive statistics, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis, and GIS-based mapping, the research reveals a 31.65-fold population increase, from 1,291 individuals in 2004 to 40,861 in 2025, corresponding to a CAGR of 17.7%. The findings highlight the golden jackal’s expansion from Danube-bordering counties to widespread presence across Romania’s plain and hilly regions, reaching the northern national borders. As the species increasingly interacts with wildlife and forest managers through its predation behaviour, with farmers through livestock depredation, and with public health systems due to its role in disease transmission, there is an urgent need to understand how to manage its growth and promote coexistence. This study underscores the jackal’s reproductive and dispersal capacity and emphasizes the necessity of implementing adaptive management strategies without delay.