Using forecast for creating artistic bridges between people

: Forecast represents the set of work methods through which the main business objectives of the institution, its behaviors as well as the resources and the modalities required for their accomplishment are determined. From the perspective of artistic management, forecast is the foundation of the decisions of the leader of cultural organizations. The detailed analysis of culture, of how the artistic act creates an impact in society, must represent a particularly important element of documentation. Forecast represents the basis on which the change of perspective from which culture contributes to the development of society can be built. Thus, the analysis from the moment of making the forecast must be realistic regarding the current state of perception of culture, its purpose being to establish realistic targets, possible to reach, but in accordance with the very purpose of art: that of revealing the good and creating bridges between people.


Introduction
Planning in the artistic field but also in any business which implies obtaining profit should aim for setting goals (long term, medium and short term goals).In order to reach them in the future, identifying the required resources is mandatory to successfully carry out these determined objectives.Planning implies identifying opportunities and determining the means to transform them into reality.
Using forecast in the management areas of cultural organizations or organizations that aim to increase the awareness of cultural heritage involves planning and organizing in behalf of a cultural institution (usually, in Romania, these institutions are financed from state / ministerial/ local funds) or on behalf of an artist (an independently, private organized one).The mastery of combining different information in various fields is not of less significance than the use of creativity, driven by motivation, the competency to predict possible difficulties and, not in a less important manner, a not tiring persistence.
Planning requires anticipating the different unexpected conditions and evolution for the artistic event in socio-economic conditions.It is thus considered that all working processes over which the central objectives of the artistic organization are intended, the approaches involved and the different resources necessary to achieve their substantial prior elaborated purpose.
The innovation cycle extends beyond the neo-Schumpeterian theory (that covers only the concept of invention and subsequent commercialization), considering innovation based on a complex analysis of the current aspects of the cultural environment as a cumulative but discontinuous process characterized by the "creative destruction" itself.

The cycle of innovation
The nature of innovation and the increase of knowledge in general, explain the situation of the economy in a position of disequilibrium (Metcalfe 2022, 3-15).When analyzing the cultural, artistic environment in a region, there can be easily noticed a number of patterns that contribute to the economic, social, political and psychological limitations of the people in charge of creating new connections between the artists involved in creating artistic events and the public that wants to obtain different higher cultural awareness.

The application of the cycle of innovation
The cycle of innovation explains the dialectical sequence of exploitationexploration.The cycle (Noteboom 2000, 198) observes the application of present knowledge and skills in new contexts (through new use of theories and technologies, new markets for existing services or products), with implications for the differentiation of existing practices and implications for the adaptability necessary to create changes in the environment.In this way there is also the possibility of avoiding previous institutions resulting from previous innovations.In adapting the product or service to the new conditions from the development of the internal elements involved and from the environment that the institution functions, the new methodologies must be considered, starting from the experience of the previous rounds of innovation and modernization.In this context a distinction must be made between the two terms.When an innovation is mentioned, than the people and the machines involved in obtaining the product or service is significantly improved (in terms of speed, quality, appearance, quantity, sound) by using newly invented means by researchers.When a modernization is mentioned, than the product or service is considered to be obtained by assuring a resource that corresponds to the current stage of progress, in the absence of which the product or service would no longer be attractive to buy by the customer.
If differentiation cannot ensure survival, and cannot take advantage of new opportunities, the next step should allow inspiration from other successful practices.Making the mix of known elements and new elements from unconventional practices is called hybridization.In the literature there are numerous examples showing the importance of the development of hybrids in the generation and growth of radical innovations (Mokyr 1990, 296).Hybrids allow exploration of the potential of new elements without significantly departing from the underlying logic, basic structure and design principles or architecture of conventional practices.Hybrids, however, can lead to inefficiencies and inconsistencies, suggesting the need for radical architectural change.
In the Nooteboom cycle openness to the new, with challenges and opportunities, and making experiments is essential.In the transition from exploitation to exploration there is the search for technical feasibility and trading viability for the new product or service, consolidation (Geroski 2003, 35).It is also of great importance to create connections between the product or service and the manner in which it is destined to satisfy a need, regardless of the fact that it is an economical one or an emotional one.In this process called consolidation, there is a need to replace conventional practices ("creative destruction" -Schumpeter) (Croitoru 2012, 144).
Existing institutions, technical, commercial, artistic, fiscal, administrative standards and regulations, market structures, the entire selection environment, contribute to blocking entry, generating change.In other words, innovation involves institutional change and contributes to creating new bridges of communication, of artistic expression and of emotional resonance.Due to institutional barriers, radical innovation can be delayed, especially in the context where innovations do not always find their applications immediately.It is than of event greater need to accelerate the creation of these bridges of expression, thus the approachability and the willingness to create healthy, lasting change is felt by all the members involved in creating change and in implementing it.
A graphical representation of the elements involved in creating innovation and the means to obtain it by creating lasting change through bridges of communication is presented below (fig.1).Forecast needs to take into consideration all the means in obtaining the specific goals, and not only the technological ones and the financial ones should be taken into consideration by the ones responsible.
Opening markets are for the entry of new products or services, with a critical point of view about establishing interests and institutions, a policy to stimulate bridges of emphatic analysis and communication in innovation.At the time of consolidation, objectives, means and causal relationships are clarified.The level of uncertainty is reduced and familiarity with the new increases; demand increases, markets emerge and price competition intensifies.Based on the innovation process and the transformations required, constraint on price creates constraint on efficiency and on the psychological equilibrium within the working teams involved.Classical economic analyzes apply to efficiency pressures and the means of communication apply, in addition, to increase efficiency and effectiveness.

Fig. 1. The cycle of innovation exploitation exploration adapted after Nooteboom
Market mechanisms are necessary to ensure an optimal allocation of scarce material, financial and natural resources (aiming for an efficient allocation) and knowledge of objectives.In efficiency management, opportunities to increase production efficiency and service excellence must be taken into account, within competition policies, mechanisms are aimed at removing entry barriers (web 1).The reduction of profits during the transition from product or service innovation to consolidation makes an argument for assuming the leadership position in the early periods of the innovation cycle.This cycle should not be seen as a logical sequence, but as an inquiring that most of the time operates well.In the attempt to achieve innovation, there are high chances of evolution towards uncertainty and chaos, namely the impossibility of understanding the connections between the new objectives.Prototypes may fail technically or commercially.Rivals' designs, models, or technical standards are able to continue and may evolve over the long term, and potential long-term users may hesitate.After consolidation, there is the possibility of entering an inertial trajectory, especially if there are no opportunities or initiatives for evolution towards new contexts of application, or there are barriers imposed from the outside.During the period of consolidation, institutions accept innovation and strong pressures towards isomorphism appear.Thus, innovation implies openness to new climates of application, global markets and new users, in other words, an exploratory framework that supports change that combines aspects of different research areas.
Some of the stages in this cycle may not be completed.It should be noted that making progress is a process involving stress and contradiction.Aiming to survive in the new markets and behavioral contexts, innovators must adapt to the new requirements, trying to confirm the acceptance of the innovation in a framework dominated by the problem of "creative destruction".The innovation cycle offers a dynamic representation of innovation and innovation policies, which function according to institutional conditions (which inhibit or support generalization processes towards openness to new contexts and differentiation).Innovation policies are not only about determining the content of innovation, but about extended innovation processes.It is essential to be open to new environments with new provocative challenges and new opportunities, open to the necessary collaboration in the process of exploration, openness in the form of inquisitiveness and attention directed towards other practices and the preparation of experiments based on hybrid elements.

The place of artistic entrepreneurship in the innovation cycle
The distinction between Schumpeterian entrepreneurship of "creative destruction" and Kirznerian (Kirzner 1973, 85-86) entrepreneurship of arbitrage is well known.Within the innovation cycle, the evolution towards consolidation could be seen as a balancing act, and instead of the two types of entrepreneurship, a much wider range of entrepreneurship types could be identified throughout the innovation cycle, including the artistic entrepreneurship.There are entrepreneurs who create and sparkle with a new idea that is technically possible to implement, commercially realistic, with productive efficiency that removes barriers to entry and contributes to the construction of new markets or applications, bringing new elements or making combinations into new architectures.
This can occur before consolidation, so exploration can be triggered even before mining is complete.Entrepreneurs who adopt the innovation and use also artistic approaches make settings from their own perspective aiming at dissemination and consolidation.A possible imbalance is observed precisely in the fact that there is a danger of eroding profits.
It is observed that with the increase in business opportunity, the favorable character of socio-economic factors, the qualities of the entrepreneur and the way of stimulation through government policies, the probability of starting new businesses increases.The stimulation of knowledge transfer can also be done through the creation of intermediate vehicles or institutions (industrial parks, incubators, alternative artistic expression vehicles, spaces of artistic manifestation with nonlinear approaches), through initiatives that have links with the academic environment, can stimulate the formation and development of knowledge-based businesses and present a management system based on technological transfer, supported by the cultural aesthetics of creation incubators.Incubators are business support processes that support accelerating the successful development of startups by providing resources and services to entrepreneurs.
The development of industrial incubators occurred at a slow pace until the 1970s, later developing as a global phenomenon.The Center for Strategy and Service Evaluation (CSES) defines business incubators as organizations that accelerate and systematize the process of creating successful new businesses based on integrated support.Regarding academic spin-offs defines these structures as a new company founded with the purpose of exploiting intellectual property, created within an academic institution.The main examples of success are: DEC -Digital Equipment Corporation; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Wang Computers -Harvard University; Turbo Genset -Imperial College UK.Spin-offs are agents of change that support economic value through the link of satisfying consumer needs by offering innovative products or services, in the context of generating new jobs for qualified personnel, attracting investments for development with local and regional impact.Anderson proposes an entrepreneurial business model that is based on five principles: invent, design, prototype, manufacture and sell.In this framework, openness to innovation and agility in technological changes stand out as elements strongly associated with entrepreneurship and innovation.

Conclusions
Planning is a fundamental element in cultural management, and there is good evidence that innovative cultural organizations contribute to social and economic development.A great capacity, knowledge, intelligence and also intuition is needed in using information and in obtaining performance with different individuals (artists, but also support people), having one single objective: to access a well-organized construction that which acts unitarily in order to reach a specific cultural goal.In developed countries, in contrast to the emergent countries with constant developing procedures and not always reliable institutions, there are fewer innovative artists and cultural managers that trust and are willing to create a sustainable bridge of communication and effectiveness within organizations.